Draw Bias in UK horse races.
If we have some
knowledge or a selection process that others don't have, we may have
In my opinion, Draw Advantages may offer a slight edge.
Newspaper draw advantage advice is, and always has been extremely
Television presenters waffle on about draw advantages, but do these
people really have the time to look at draw advantages in any detail
? . . . . . . I don't thinks so.
It is my view that draw advantage advice in general is based on
personal observation and "Running rail theory" rather than results
on the racecourse.
To decide where a draw
advantage might exist for a course and distance, all that is needed is a simple count up of the number of wins from
each starting stall in past races.
We can then see which stalls have produced the
winners, and which horses may have been at a disadvantage.
An accurate count up is a very big job, which may explain why
popular draw advantage advice is extremely poor.
These links will take
you to my old draw advantage web site.
Unfortunately, for economic reasons, I no longer update that
information - - - - - I couldn't sell the information.
This link shows a
sample of Race Of The Week information that I used to publish
The idea was to highlight extremely poor newspaper draw advantage
advice whilst trying to tip well drawn horses.
Note the totally misleading newspaper advice for races at Warwick
despite a very strong draw advantage over the previous 10 years in 6F
5 horses had been winning most of these races
for the previous 10 years.
The result of that week's Race Of The Week that took place several
days later is highlighted at the top
None of the text has been altered since its original publication in
Follow this link for
information from a few years back.
That information has not been updated for quite some time, but
strong draw advantages don't disappear unless drainage work or other
major changes are made to racecourses.
Watering of racecourses has been used since way back in the 1970's
and maybe before, so the race results shown on that web site include
all races on courses that were watered.
A list of the very best
draw advantages at UK racecourses is supplied with purchase of some
of my spreadsheets.
I would guess that many punters pay little attention the the draw,
except maybe in big races or in races at Chester, Beverley and
Sandown where draw advantages are well known.
There are plenty of other courses with a strong draw bias in some
Many of them are not emphasised by newspapers or television
Several factors affect
draw bias :-
Drainage. By far
the most important factor. Ignore running rails and think
drainage, drainage, drainage.
distance of races increase, draw bias has less effect.
Not as influential as you might think. Only a few strong draw
biases involve running round bends.
The going. Wait
for dry weather. The best draw advantages occur on good or
As a general rule, wet conditions usually eliminate draw bias.
Number of runners.
We want our horses to run in one bunch.
Draw bias in big fields that split can be unpredictable.
Starting stalls can be positioned against either running rail or in
the centre of the course.
That can cock things up from a draw bias point of view.
The points above may
state the b..... obvious, but newspaper and other draw advantage
advice doesn't usually take them all into consideration.
If those factors are not built into the odds that we are
trading, we might just have a small edge to work with.
Runners that are badly drawn may be worth laying, either as a target lay,
or as a non-target lay to reduce liabilities on other badly drawn
runners that we also lay.
Also an inexperienced jockey may not have the expertise to overcome a
bad draw, so an apprentice or a lady jockey (excluding Hayley
Turner) on a badly drawn horse riding against top professional
jockeys might be worth considering.
These links show
examples of draw bias that may be of interest.
We all know
about this one.
That advantage deteriorates in longer races at Chester, but
television presenters even suggest that there is a draw
advantage in the Chester Cup, a race over 2 miles.
2 horses were
winning nearly 50% of races, so Doncaster laid new drains.
3 horses were
winning 60% of races, but not next to the running rail.
Maybe drainage had something to do with it.
Note that the starting stalls have been positioned
next to the Stands Rail at the "High" side of the
course in all Epsom 5F races since the late 1980's.
I wonder why ?
often split into 2 groups. Draw bias at Thisrk occurs
in smaller field sizes
York 1m 2F
If a television
presenter ever advises a draw advantage on the strength of
the results of one race from several previous seasons, he or
she is giving advice using an extremely small sample size.
Why not quote all races of the past 10 years over that
course and distance ?
In the past, The John Smith's Cup at York has been a classic
example of such stupidity.
That happened again in 2011 with the results of the past 10
years for this one race being quoted in relation to the
Don't be mislead by these "experts".
UK course and distances up to a mile.
Follow this link
for descriptions of draw bias for all UK course and
distances up to a mile.
Note that web site has not been updated for some time.