RACE OF THE WEEK.
Big races.  Major meetings.  The best draw advantages.

Warwick 6F  Thurs Sept 6th 2007.

Result:-
Thurs. 14:50.  Winner drawn 1 of 13  11/1.  Good-firm going.

During the last 10 years, Warwick 6F races for older horses have produced one of the strongest draw advantage patterns in the country.  5 horses have been winning 4 of every 5 races.
In the last 10 seasons with stalls positioned Low,
o
n good or better going in races of 8 - 14 runners, stalls 1 - 5 won 20 of 24 races 83 %.

Apologies for this newspaper advice being quite old.
These newspapers don't normally identify the very strong series of results in 6F races on good or better going.
From that, we can probably assume that most punters know very little of this very strong draw advantage pattern.

Newspaper draw advantage advice for Warwick Apr 4th 2006

Racing Post Generally fair with no real bias.
Sun Little effect.
Star High best when stalls far side.
Mirror High numbers best on soft ground up to 1m.

Warwick  6F notes.
There is a bend of almost 180 degrees shortly after the start that is probably responsible for this draw bias.
The most influential factors affecting the draw in these races are the going and field sizes.
On good or better going, horses drawn in the Bottom half of the draw won 21 races, the Top half won 6, a ratio of more than 3 to 1.
On good or better going in races of 15 or more runners, stalls 1 to 6 won 2 of 5 races.
On good or better going in races of 8 to 14 runners, stalls 1 to 5 won 20 of 24 races 83%.
There have not been many races with 15 runners or more, but traffic problems in big fields could be affecting results.
Other than that, just 5 horses have been winning most of these races for the past 10 years.

WARWICK 6F
Stalls usually positioned LOW (Inside)

WINNING STALL NUMBER

 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
No

of

R

U

N

E

R

S

8     1       1  
9 1   1 11 1        
10 11 1   11       11    
11         1            
12     1   1          1 1  
13 1111    1 1 F     1          
14        111           1      
15      1          1             1
16             1     1            
17           1     1                
18                                    
19                                     1
20                                        
21                                          
22                                            
7 0 5 6 3 1

<--Good or better -->

2 1 1 2 1 1
21 6

Copyright 2005 [H Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.

Results 5 of 13 runners, was a flag start on heavy going.
At present, this is one of the strongest patterns in the country.
On good or better going results have favoured the Bottom half of the draw by more than 3 to 1.
On good or better going stalls 1 - 6 won 22 of 29 races 76%.
Above 14 runners, results spread away from the Bottom 6 stalls.
In races of
8 - 14 runners, stalls 1 - 5 won 20 of 24 races 83%.
It may be best to consider 6 stalls.

On good or better going in races of 8 - 14 runners, 
stalls 1 - 6 won 20 of 24 races 83 %.

Until the 2006 results were added there appeared to be the start of a similar pattern good, good to soft in places or softer going.
In races of 8-14 runners, stalls 1-5 won 4 of 5 races (excluding the flag start), but 2 winners in 2006 drawn 10-12 and 11-12, (both on the same day), scuppered that part of the pattern.
The advice for 2006 was that as a general rule, results on this type of going often prove to be unreliable, and that proved to be the case.
The sample size was also very small.
There is no recommendation on going
softer than good.

2006 results :- 7-8, 3-12, 10-12, 11-12, 1-13

2005 results :-  1-13, 1-13, 4-14, 4-14, 5-14

2004 results :-  3-9, 2-10, 8-10, 1-13, 5-13, 4-14.

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Copyright 2005 [Howard Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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